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Field Detail
Theme Population and Development
Code PD-EDU-1.1
MDG code MDG-2.2
Sub-theme Education
Name Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary (MDG.2.2)
Definition The proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary education, known as the Survival Rate to last Grade of primary, is the percentage of a cohort of pupils enrolled in grade 1 of the primary level of education in a given school year who are expected to reach the last grade of primary school, regardless of repetition.
Calculation/Formula Total number of pupils belonging to a school cohort who reach each successive grade of primary education / Number of pupils in the school cohort (students originally enrolled in grade 1) x 100
Unit of Measure %
Range (eg Age) Primary school
Assumptions The reconstructed cohort method assumes that: drop-outs never return to school; the promotion, repetition and drop-out rates observed in the last two years remain constant over the entire period in which the cohort is enrolled in school; and the same rates apply to all pupils enrolled in a given grade, regardless of whether they previously repeated a grade
Limitations The indicator measures an education system’s success in retaining students from one grade to the next as well as its internal efficiency. It illustrates the situation regarding retention of pupils from grade to grade in schools, and conversely the magnitude of dropout by grade. Survival Rates approaching 100% indicate a high level of retention and low incidence of dropout. It is important to note that it does not imply that all children of school age complete primary education. The Survival Rate is a percentage of a cohort of pupils (i.e. children who have already entered school) and not a percentage of children of school age. Various factors account for poor performance on this indicator, including low quality of schooling, high levels of grade repetition and the direct and indirect costs of schooling. Students’ progress to higher grades may also be limited by the availability of teachers, classrooms and/or educational materials. Since the calculation of this indicator is based on pupil-flow rates, the reliability of the Survival Rate depends on the consistency of data on enrolment and repeaters in terms of coverage over time and across grades. Given that this indicator is usually estimated using cohort analysis models that are based on a number of assumptions, care should be taken in using the results in comparisons. The method of computation has limitations in measuring the true degree to which school entrants survive through primary education because flows caused by re-entrants, grade skipping, migration or transfers during the school year are not adequately captured. To complete the picture of primary completion, the indicator should be complemented by the intake rate to grade 1, because together these two indicators give a much better sense of the proportion of children in the population who complete primary education.
Purpose/Rationale The indicator measures an education system’s success in retaining students from one grade to the next as well as its internal efficiency. It illustrates the situation regarding retention of pupils from grade to grade in schools, and conversely the magnitude of dropout by grade. Survival Rates approaching 100% indicate a high level of retention and low incidence of dropout. It is important to note that it does not imply that all children of school age complete primary education. The Survival Rate is a percentage of a cohort of pupils (i.e. children who have already entered school) and not a percentage of children of school age.
Policy Linkages National Development Plans, National Sustainable Development Frameworks, MDGs
Preferred Data Sources MOE digests
Primary Data Collection System National Administrative Database - Education Information Management Systems (EMIS)
Frequency of Data Collection Annual
SPC Responsibility - Data Management SDP
Notes Can be affected by x migration and migrant workers families
Country Specific Issues Cook Islands - Census usually held in November at end of school year
SPC Programme SDP
Numerator Total number of pupils belonging to a school cohort who reach each successive grade of primary education
Denominator Number of pupils in the school cohort (students originally enrolled in grade 1)
Factor x 100
Unit %
Other Metadata Link http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Metadata.aspx