Field Detail
Theme Health
Code PH-CD-1.2
MDG code MDG-6.9.3
Sub-theme Communicable Diseases (TB)
Name TB Incidence rate (new cases each year per 100,000 population) (MDG 6.9.3)
Definition Tuberculosis incidence is the estimated number of new tuberculosis (TB) cases arising in one year per 100,000 population. All forms of TB are included, as are cases in people with HIV.
Calculation/Formula Estimates of TB incidence are based on a consultative and analytical process led by WHO. National TB programmes provide surveillance data to WHO to calculate.
Assumptions Routine surveillance data provide a good basis for estimating incidence in countries where the majority of incident cases are treated and notified to WHO. Where the proportion of cases notified is consistent over time (even if it is low), trends in incidence can be judged from trends in notified cases. Where TB control efforts change over time it is difficult to differentiate between changes in incidence and changes in the proportion of cases notified. A national surveillance system is an integral part of good TB control, and one of the components of DOTS, which forms the core of the Stop TB Strategy.
Limitations As surveillance improves in countries implementing the strategy, so will estimates of TB incidence. Prevalence and death rates are more sensitive markers to the changing burden of tuberculosis than incidence (new cases), although data on trends in incidence are for more comprehensive and give the best overview of the incidence of tuberculosis control.
Purpose/Rationale To reduce TB related morbidity, achieve Stop TB Partnership targets and contribute towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals - Internationally recommended impact indicator, with international targets; The international target is to eliminate TB as a public health problem (i.e. an incidence rate of less than one case of TB per one million population) by the year 2050; The regional target is to eliminate TB as a public health problem (i.e. an incidence rate of less than one case of TB per one million population)
Policy Linkages Stop TB Strategy, Strategic Plan to Stop TB in the Western Pacific, Global Fund Program
Preferred Data Sources WHO Annual Tuberculosis Control Report
Primary Data Collection System National Administrative Database - Health Information Management Systems (HIS)
Frequency of Data Collection Annual
Other agencies countries_ must report to: CHIPS, Global Fund
SPC Responsibility - Data Management PHD
Baseline Year 2010
Baseline value 58 (2010) Source: SPC annual TB report, 2010
Target Year 2015
Target value Halt and begin to reverse the incidence by 2015
Data validation / quality Not so relevant as these estimates are provided by WHO (although there do exist some limitations with regards to the estimates)
SPC Programme PHD
Link to SPC Division Plan PHD Goal 15 - TB
Numerator A standardized data collection form is distributed to all countries on an annual basis. Estimates are made using these data as well as country-specific analyses of TB epidemiology based on the published literature and consultation with national and intern
Other Metadata Link http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Metadata.aspx