Vanuatu is strengthening its expertise in population projection with support from the Pacific Community (SPC), helping to better understand future demographic shifts in the island country and their potential impact.
SPC’s Statistics for Development Division is supporting Vanuatu’s Bureau of Statistics in its population projection from 2024 through to 2050, equipping the country’s statistics experts with the knowledge and skills to better deploy population projection techniques towards informed policy decisions.
Statistical population projections use mathematical models to estimate future demographic changes, such as birth rates, death rates and migration patterns. These projections are crucial for planning and policymaking, helping governments and businesses anticipate future needs for services, infrastructure and resources.
A joint SPC–Vanuatu Bureau of Statistics workshop in July sought to support participants with a thorough grounding in the theoretical and practical aspects of population projection. This included exploring various national projection approaches, data evaluation and adjustment techniques, and in-depth sessions on projecting vital events such as births deaths and migration.
The workshop was facilitated by SPC’s Dr Yohannes Kinfu, Statistics Adviser in Demography, where interactive tutorials and debriefing sessions were also held with Vanuatu’s Chief Statistician, Mr Andy Calo, and SPC’s Melanesian Regional Office.
Dr Yohannes says robust population projections are important because they’re foundational for making good policy, planning and investment decisions.
“Population projections are essential for evidence-based policy and decision-making,” he explains. “They give us a clear picture of what to expect, so we can better plan for critical areas like education, healthcare and infrastructure.
“In education, the projections help allocate resources, build schools and train teachers to keep up with the number and needs of learners in the future.
“When it comes to healthcare, knowing the growth rate and structure of the population allows us to prepare for the needs of all citizens, from young children to the elderly, such as aged care, vaccination and maternal health needs.
“For infrastructure, these projections guide us in developing housing, public transport and utilities to match future demands.”
Dr Yohannes explains that population projections also serve as a mechanism for identifying opportunities and challenges on the horizon—like an ageing population, rapid shifts from rural to urban settings, or assessing the impact of international migration on a country's future population size.
These forecasts allow decision-makers in government, the private and third sectors to be proactive in solutions and mitigation strategies—essential factors in a country’s sustainability and resilience.
Contacts
Ben Campion, Communications and Engagement Adviser, Statistics for Development | [email protected]
